A 1970s publication caused a big stir when it showed that continuing on business-as-usual population and consumption growth trajectories would likely lead to societal collapse within a century. Were the scientists behind it right?

A major scientific warning

If you’re a Population Connection supporter, you’re most likely familiar with The Limits to Growth (LtG), a seminal scientific report published in 1972 by think-tank The Club of Rome. Using computer models developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), the authors demonstrated the danger of ignoring the finiteness of our planet. They warned,

“If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.”

In the LtG researchers’ “standard” model, which reflects business-as-usual, population, food production, and industrial output (a measure of economic growth) increase exponentially until rapidly diminishing natural resources cause an economic slowdown beginning around 1970. Population and pollution continue to increase for some time after peak industrialization, but decreased food and medical services cause death rates to rise from around 2020 onward, leading to a rapid fall in population beginning around 2030.

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