Since the end of WWII the US has been the world’s greatest economic, diplomatic and military power. When the Cold War ended with the collapse of the USSR that left the US as the only superpower.

For nearly 80 years we’ve got used to being the top dog, and most of us never even consider that our status could change. Maybe we should though, because history tells us that it can, and probably will.

Someday, maybe sooner than we expect, someone will overtake us – and right now the most likely candidate for that is China.

Are We Losing The Race?
Not that long ago the idea of China outcompeting the US seemed ridiculous. Despite its huge population, it was a poor country.

Its military was large, but armed with crude copies of 1950s Soviet equipment. Chinese exports were notoriously cheap and nasty. And, despite frequent – and often brutal – attempts to reform its economy, it grew slowly or not at all.

What Happens If China Becomes The Ruling Economic Power Of The World
About 20 years ago that suddenly changed. Communist Party leader Jiang Zemin took power in 1989 and built on the reforms of his predecessor, Deng Xiaoping. As he started to hand over to his successor Hu Jintao, those reforms started to pay off and China’s economy began to grow dramatically.

The US economy is significantly larger than China’s. In 2022 our estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is around $25,035 billion. China, in second place, has an estimated GDP of $18, 321 billion. That makes the US economy around 37% larger, which is definitely a big lead.

That lead needs to be put in perspective, though. The world’s third-largest economy is Japan, with a GDP of about $4,301 billion – smaller than the difference between China and the US.

The US and China are far out in front of the pack. That wasn’t always true, though. In fact, in 1980 China wasn’t second only to the US; it was tenth, behind countries like Italy, Canada and Brazil.

Looking at how far behind the two leading economies Japan is now, that gives an idea of how much, and how fast, China has grown. Today the US economy is 37% larger than China’s; in 1980 it was 1,266% larger.

Even as recently as 2010 it was 257% larger – well over twice the size. The speed of China’s economic growth has been stunning. Even more stunning, and worrying, is how much faster than us China is growing.

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