Beneath the resilient surface of the global economy lie structural challenges that could threaten its stability. We examine what could unfold in the unlikely—but not impossible—event of a global economic collapse.

The global economy may seem invincible, bouncing back after a pandemic, wars, and energy crises. But beneath the surface, deeper cracks are forming. Mounting debt and structural changes like ageing demographics threaten the very foundations of the current global order. What happens if these pressures trigger a collapse? We explore the wild card of global economic collapse through four future scenarios.

While they’re not an exhaustive list of all the possible future directions, the four scenarios below analyse pivotal trajectories that could trigger a global economic collapse, providing a strategic lens for organisations to explore the diverse ways the future might unfold.

In our scenario-building process, we focused on the following set of key driving forces that will influence the future of the global economy:

Rising Debt
Demographic drought
Increasing energy prices
Geopolitical tensions
Regulations
Central bank independence

Productivity growth
In each scenario, we examine the different ways these drivers may evolve in the years ahead, as well as the different ways they may interact and influence each other. All four scenario descriptions also include a development timeline section, which lists three to six steps that could plausibly happen to move us closer to the given scenario. The purpose of this section is to give readers a list of signs and indicators to look out for when monitoring future developments.

Scenario 1: Hyperinflation leads to global famine

In a global climate marked by instability and deficient monetary policies, inflation spirals out of control. As superpower rivalry intensifies, a weakening dependency ratio and stagnant productivity growth increase debt levels. Prices for essential commodities and raw materials—such as fertilizers, grain, and oil—skyrocket. Despite the surging inflation, central banks find themselves unable to raise interest rates adequately due to political pressures and mounting debt.

In an effort to revive struggling economies, new monetary stimulus programs are introduced, but these measures backfire, triggering hyperinflation. The economic shock is severe and immediate. Global trade grinds to a near halt. Amidst the chaos, people hoard goods, and the barter system reemerges. Starvation becomes rampant, with some regions facing deadly famine.

Western currencies are forcibly tied to the dollar, which provides a temporary solution to the problem of high indebtedness. Yet, the broader economic landscape remains fraught with uncertainty and instability as nations navigate the aftermath of these turbulent changes.

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