In January and March, I talked about a coming global famine. Unfortunately, the world has remained on the same trajectory since that time. As we enter the last few months of 2024, the world will awaken to that reality as global harvests come in with lower than expected totals.

Why is this? Entering 2024, rising energy costs had driven up prices for both diesel and fertilizer. Since these are the two most costly inputs in agricultural production, this led to increased food production costs. Those, in turn, impacted the feed cost for cattle, hogs, chickens, and other animals. But now we’re entering the phase where the world will realize shortages and/or higher prices; for fertilizer, herbicides, and pesticides significantly impacted crop yields all over the globe.

What Are the Current Harvest Projections?

On August 12 (2022), the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates. At first glance, the numbers they cite seem to point to a better than anticipated harvest. However, when you take a look at the numbers and compare them to news coming from the front lines, they appear glowingly optimistic. For example, the USDA projects global rice exports to be the same as in 2023, and they estimate Indian rice production will decrease 0.9%. Yet, according to this TimesNow article:

“There has been a 13 percent decline in paddy sowing so far in the monsoon season in India. Even though the rains have been sufficient, reports say that their distribution in time and space has been inconsistent. This has affected sowing in June and July, the peak months for planting the crop which is fed by monsoon rains and is harvested in October-November.”

And according to Reuters:

“India’s top rice-producing states of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh have recorded a monsoon rainfall deficit of as much as 45 percent so far this season, data from the state-run weather department shows. That has in part led to a 13 percent drop in rice planting this year, which could result in production falling by 10 million tonnes or around 8 percent from last year, said BV Krishna Rao, president of the All India Rice Exporters Association.”

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