You’ve probably seen posts and articles in mainstream and independent media warning of coming shortages and empty shelves. Since we are nearing an inevitable economic cliff, some degree of panic is understandable. The US-China trade war is certainly rattling global supply chains and pushing prices higher. But while the damage is real and deepening, this isn’t necessarily the sudden collapse some are bracing for. The story is slower, more grinding, and, in some ways, harder to fix.

When might the shelves run dry?

First of all, let’s take a look at the shipping situation. You haven’t seen shortages on store shelves yet because of the time it takes for ships to reach our shores and for goods to be transported and distributed. But, cargo shipments from China are estimated to have fallen by as much as 60% since the tariffs hit. CBS News reports that canceled or postponed cargo sailings caused by a lack of volume are now “at levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic.” The Tax Foundation estimates US imports will shrink by nearly a quarter this year, amounting to around $800 billion in goods that will not be seen in our economy.

Many retailers had the foresight to front load inventory before the tariffs kicked in, buying themselves a few extra months of breathing room. But even with that buffer, existing stockpiles can only stretch so far. In categories where China has near-total dominance — toys, electronics components, and low-cost manufactured goods, to name a few — there aren’t enough alternative sources ready to pick up the slack.

The CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot recently warned President Trump that tariffs could lead to higher prices and empty shelves soon (starting around mid-May).

What will this mean for your household budget?

Yale’s Budget Lab estimates the tariffs will end up costing the average household around $2,600 this year. Construction prices are surging too, with builders reporting that new homes may be almost $11,000 more expensive on average due to tariff impacts.

Read the rest of the article BELOW: